Monitoring the current status of climate

Monitoring the current status of climate


Testing for spatial dependence between independently measured values in an ordered set is based on applying Fisher’s F-test to the variance of a set and the first variance term of the ordered set. Charting statistically significant variance terms gives a sampling variogram that shows where spatial dependence in our sample space of time dissipates into randomness. The lag of a sampling variogram is a statistically robust measure for a change in a climate statistic.
Scientists use "Indicator time series" that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystem status. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the climate is also monitored with climate indices.

Monitoring the current status of climate

Testing for spatial dependence between independently measured values in an ordered set is based on applying Fisher’s F-test to the variance of a set and the first variance term of the ordered set. Charting statistically significant variance terms gives a sampling variogram that shows where spatial dependence in our sample space of time dissipates into randomness. The lag of a sampling variogram is a statistically robust measure for a change in a climate statistic.
Scientists use "Indicator time series" that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystem status. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the climate is also monitored with climate indices.

Examples of climate

changeClimate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field of paleoclimatology has provided information of climate change in the ancient past, supplementing modern observations of climate.

1. Climate of the deep past
Faint young sun paradox
Snowball earth
Oxygen Catastrophe

2. Climate of the last 500 million years
Phanerozoic overview
Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Cretaceous Thermal Maximum
Permo–Carboniferous Glaciation
Ice ages

3. Climate of recent glaciations
Dansgaard–Oeschger event
Younger Dryas
Ice age temperatures

4. Recent climate
Holocene Climatic Optimum
Medieval Warm Period
Little Ice Age
Year Without a Summer
Temperature record of the past 1000 years
Global warming
Hardiness Zone Migration

Climate change and biodiversity

The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of the seasons; climatic changes can lead to interdependent pairs of species (e.g. a wild flower and its pollinating insect) losing synchronization, if, for example, one has a cycle dependent on day length and the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at least, this could lead to extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of species. One phenomenon is the movement of species northwards in Europe. A recent study by Butterfly Conservation in the UK, has shown that relatively common species with a southerly distribution have moved north, whilst scarce upland species have become rarer and lost territory towards the south. This picture has been mirrored across several invertebrate groups. Drier summers could lead to more periods of drought, potentially affecting many species of animal and plant. For example, in the UK during the drought year of 2006 significant numbers of trees died or showed dieback on light sandy soils. In Australia, since the early 90s, tens of thousands of flying foxes (Pteropus) have died as a direct result of extreme heat. Wetter, milder winters might affect temperate mammals or insects by preventing them hibernating or entering torpor during periods when food is scarce. One predicted change is the ascendancy of 'weedy' or opportunistic species at the expense of scarcer species with narrower or more specialized ecological requirements. One example could be the expanses of bluebell seen in many woodlands in the UK. These have an early growing and flowering season before competing weeds can develop and the tree canopy closes. Milder winters can allow weeds to overwinter as adult plants or germinate sooner, whilst trees leaf earlier, reducing the length of the window for bluebells to complete their life cycle. Organisations such as Wildlife Trust, World Wide Fund for Nature, Birdlife International and the Audubon Society are actively monitoring and research the effects of climate change on biodiversity and advance policies in areas such as landscape scale conservation to promote adaptation to climate change.

Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution.Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1880s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm to ~387 ppm today.These increasing concentrations are projected to reach a range of 535 to 983 ppm by the end of the 21st century.It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 750,000 years.[9] Along with rising methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4–5.6 °C between 1990 and 2100 (see global warming).

Climate Change

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences. Average weather may include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities.
In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term "climate change" often refers to changes in modern climate (see global warming). For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.